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2019年05月08日
统计如何误导 - 马克·利德尔 B2
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Statistics are persuasive, so much so that people,

How statistics can be misleading - Mark Liddell

Statistics are persuasive, so much so that people,

00:00
03:56
  Statistics are persuasive, so much so that people, organizations, and whole countries base some of their most important decisions on organized data(资料). But there's a problem with that. Any set of statistics might have something lurking( 潜伏) inside it, something that can turn the results completely upside(优势) down. For example, imagine you need to choose between two hospitals for an elderly(上了年纪的) relative surgery(外科). Out of each hospital's last 1000 patients, 900 survived at hospital A, while only 800 survived at hospital B. So it looks like hospital A is the better choice.
  But before you make your decision, remember that not all patients arrive at the hospital with the same level of health. And if we divide each hospital's last 1000 patients, into those who arrived in good health and those who arrived in poor health, the picture starts to look very different. Hospital A had only 100 patients who arrived in poor health, of which 30 survived. But hospital B had 400, and they were able to save 210. So hospital B is the better choice for patients who arrive at hospital in poor health, with a survival( 幸存) rate of 52.5%. And what if your relative's health is good when she arrives at the hospital?

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重点单词:

C2
hypothetical美/,haɪpə'θɛtɪkl/英/,haɪpə'θetɪk(ə)l/添加到单词本之后,会在文章中高亮显示
adj.假设的, 假定的,爱猜想的
C1
conditional美/kən'dɪʃənl/英/kən'dɪʃ(ə)n(ə)l/添加到单词本之后,会在文章中高亮显示
adj.有条件的;假定的
pop美/pɑːp/英/pɒp/添加到单词本之后,会在文章中高亮显示
verb. 发出“砰”的一声; 突然出现
defendant美/dɪ'fɛndənt/英/dɪ'fend(ə)nt/添加到单词本之后,会在文章中高亮显示
noun.被告
elicit美/ɪ'lɪsɪt/英/ɪ'lɪsɪt/添加到单词本之后,会在文章中高亮显示
verb.得出, 引出, 抽出, 引起
datum美/ˈdetəm ; ˈdætəm ; (also) ˈdɑtəm/英/ˈdeɪtəm ; ˈdɑːtəm/添加到单词本之后,会在文章中高亮显示
noun.资料;数据;已知数
misleading美/ˌmɪsˈliːdɪŋ/英/ˌmɪsˈliːdɪŋ/添加到单词本之后,会在文章中高亮显示
adj. 令人误解的, 导致错误结论的; 引入歧途的; 欺骗的; 迷惑人的
upside美/'ʌpsaɪd/英/'ʌpsaɪd/添加到单词本之后,会在文章中高亮显示
noun.优势,上面
variable美/ˈveriəbl/英/ˈveəriəbl/添加到单词本之后,会在文章中高亮显示
noun.[数] 变量;可变物,可变因素
Florida英/'flɔridə/添加到单词本之后,会在文章中高亮显示
noun.佛罗里达镇(位于密苏里州)佛罗里达州(美国州名)
manipulate美/məˈnɪpjuleɪt/英/məˈnɪpjuleɪt/添加到单词本之后,会在文章中高亮显示
verb.操纵;巧妙地处理
stumble美/ˈstʌmbl/英/ˈstʌmbl/添加到单词本之后,会在文章中高亮显示
verb. 绊倒
convict美/kənˈvɪkt/英/kənˈvɪkt/添加到单词本之后,会在文章中高亮显示
verb.定罪['kɑːnvIkt]
vulnerable美/ˈvʌlnərəbl/英/ˈvʌlnərəbl/添加到单词本之后,会在文章中高亮显示
adj.易受攻击的,易受…的攻击;易受伤害的;有弱点的
lurk美/lɝk/英/lɜːrk/添加到单词本之后,会在文章中高亮显示
verb. 潜伏, 埋伏
fit美/fɪt/英/fɪt/添加到单词本之后,会在文章中高亮显示
noun.合身;发作;痉挛
arbitrary美/ˈɑːrbɪtreri/英/ˈɑːbɪtrəri/添加到单词本之后,会在文章中高亮显示
adj.任意的, 武断的, 独裁的, 专断的
专辑
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难度
B2
词汇量
247/598
第1句的重点词汇:
1. dataC1
美/ˈdetəm ; ˈdætəm ; (also) ˈdɑtəm/英/ˈdeɪtəm ; ˈdɑːtəm/
noun.资料;数据;已知数
语法:on的介词宾语

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